American National Politics July 2024: A Danny Dials Analysis

Not sure if you heard, but Trump got shot on Saturday - as one of the most trusted sources of media in San Francisco and arguably the nation, yes we can authenticate that this indeed did happen (Producer Reese just got back from his investigation in Pennsylvania). If you are hearing this from OneTake Media for the first time, please credit us when telling your friends - if you heard it elsewhere over the last 6 days, hand up we'll try and be a bit quicker next time.

I was surprised at how rocked I was - it was pretty clear he was going to be fine within a few seconds of the incident, and I can't say I've been a huge fan of the Donald over these last 9 years, but it was indeed a sobering moment for the republic - a reminder of the fragility with which our system stands.

An assassination attempt of this magnitude seems so anachronistic - this shit happens in the sixties, not in the 2020's? A major party political candidate has not been assassinated since RFK in 1968 (though I'm not sure if he was technically the democratic nominee at that point), and no incident like this since Reagan was shot in 1981. In 21 Questions for the 21st Century Yuval Harari argues (ground) war, plague, and famine were 20th century problems - I figured basic security at a political event would be in a similar bucket. Perhaps Yuval's work is not aging as well as one may have presumed in 2018.

This definitely goes up there with 'where were you when XYZ happened' in my lifetime. I always find if a bit of a mindf*** when one can step back and realize we are part of history, not simply spectators - a destabilizing day indeed, this graphic will never not be insane:

If Trump doesn't move his head, are we in a Civil War right now? Is California seceded from the Union? Am I out driving with Producer Reese in my Honda CRV Mad Max style searching for savages to join our rebel army? Legitimately what happens? I've thought too much about that over the last 5 days - would San Francisco just get invaded by the State of Jefferson from the north? Would I have to identify myself in some capacity as 'cool' and not a supporter of the assault on the president? Would I play offense and start trying to conquer territory myself with my machete and a couple of knives I have in my studio apartment? We live in a fundamentally different world if that bullet hits. Given the heat of this moment, and ability for things to go sideways as quickly as they can, Trump not getting a direct hit here may very well be the most important event not to happen in 20th or 21st century American history. OK probably not the 20th (losing World War II would've been quite bad) but still the magnitude is there. Thanks the good Lord above that bullet did not hit.

And yet - the show goes on! Kids go to summer camp, adults go to work, media moguls make content very few people consume (yet*) - and the Donald did not miss a damn beat getting chosen for his historic 3rd major party nomination at the Republican National Convention.

Kid Rock may not have had his best performance, but Hulk Hogan and Dana White were electric as expected, and surely Trump would stick to the script and rein it in to a national crowd? Nope! Exact opposite - he gave the same speech he was likely planning to give in Pennsylvania when he got shot on Saturday, minus him retelling the events of that day. Kind of funny given the expectations and the fact that from Monday to his final speech on Thursday the focus message wise from the RNC was telling the compelling story of their ticket, which they did quite effectively. But Trump is always a wildcard on that podium, baby! He started talking about the 'late great Hannibal Lector', 'Crazy Nancy Pelosi', he told the state of Wisconsin 'I am trying to buy your vote' which was the line of the night if you ask me, he had his greatest hits on 2020 election denial, threw out some 'AI' talk in there - as the youngsters would say, he was in his bag. He even credited his secret service, which I was somewhat surprised by given the outrageous breach that led to his shooting, a solid show of grace.

Was it the best move for winning over suburban moms in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan? Probably not - but at this point, Trump believes he has this election won, especially with a lame duck (not the actual definition, just the way Joe is presenting these days) Joe Biden at the helm as his opponent. This was my initial reaction to seeing the news and it's effect on the election in November:

Do I stand by this take? I think so - this photo above is about as epic as it gets, and modern Democrats are just awful campaigners. No ability to sell, no ability to develop a cohesive message, and looking at any sort of success to use as a benchmark comes off as inauthentic/insensitive to folks who aren't in a great place in life (think noting the record high stock market). They don't even know who their nominee is going to be after Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff, and top dog Barack Obama through his proxy George Clooney are calling for a Biden dropout. And Republicans, whether folks agree with it or not, have a united vision for who they want to lead the country over these next four years. After the debacle of a first debate for Joe, I had this to say in the company Discord:

I'm not so sure I stand by this one after the shooting - Biden may very well muscle through if the Democrats want to save their best for 2028 and just more or less concede the presidency while trying to pickup seats in the House and Senate. Perhaps Kamala Harris or Pete Buttigieg since they're in the actual administration, but it has to be someone from the current camp, right? If not then they will come off as not believing in the platform they've built since 2020.

What states will Biden win at this point? Not many... I could very well see Trump winning New York, Virginia, and Minnesota - never mind the Midwest battleground states, never mind Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia (those are all but guarantees at this point.) Could California be in play?! Folks think this place is super far left, but take out LA county and I'm not too confident in that claim. Trump very well could win 400 + electoral votes, the biggest win for a non-incumbent than my brain can recall since probably FDR over Herbert Hoover in 1932? And the biggest overall win since 1984 when I am pretty sure Reagan won every single state except Massachusetts. (fact check - it was Minnesota)

What top Democrat is going to want to risk their political future and run now with the momentum Trump has and on an outrageously short window with the election 3.5 months away? Gavin won't do it now, and with this new weird bill passing in CA about 'protection' for kids, that ain't gonna fly nationally - he'll look to 2028. Gretchen Whitmer? I think she'll pass as well. Perhaps they throw a hail mary and negotiate with RFK Jr. to get him to the top of the ticket? Will we have open debates in Chicago? I've never seen a convention where the nominee was not figured out beforehand in my lifetime, that will be some good television - #ConventionSZN is upon us!

P.S. Tulsi as VP candidate in a debate vs. Kamala would have been awesome... perhaps the Democrats try and move the Kamala - Vance debate early before convention to see if they can get some momentum there? If I were consulting them I'd be urging something creative in that vein.